NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x565ae7291731a9da61a3b00e382b42fb3b0bca6ab20bdce5ed885af7240138b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 44c | 16,124$7,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,029.69 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 56c | 6,000$3,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,359.97 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Over | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,240 | 296 | 51.7%153 W · 143 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Under | 44c | 3,934$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,203.04 | 260 | 58.8%153 W · 107 L | +17.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 2,917$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.17 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Over | 58c | 2,602$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 58c | 2,416$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.1 | 185 | 47%87 W · 98 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 56c | 1,667$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.6 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Over | 56c | 1,580$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.92 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 42c | 1,125$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.02 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 56c | 1,005$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.66 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 43c | 783.95$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.85 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9048…07f2backed Over | 59c | 758.12$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 41c | 758.12$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.29 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 57c | 719.99$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.67 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 43c | 599.99$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…585abacked Under | 45c | 574.87$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.18 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…4347backed Over | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Over | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Over | 55c | 428$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.4 | 139 | 48.2%67 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 43c | 390.44$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.33 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 57c | 371$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.47 | 83 | 68.7%57 W · 26 L | +12.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 58c | 362.36$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.17 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e69…200ebacked Over | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 28c | 289.13$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 52c | 275.65$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.32 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Over | 56c | 267.86$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 140 | 65.7%92 W · 48 L | +13.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 26c | 210.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Over | 58c | 191.34$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.98 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 56c | 182$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af0…8473backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -8.0wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1271…a720backed Over | 44c | 140$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bd…5d79backed Over | 50c | 131$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43f…dbdcbacked Over | 61c | 114.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.42 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 55c | 88.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce70…0be2backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Under | 67c | 85.28$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…54e2backed Over | 61c | 73.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.3wins | -0.39per pick | 48cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Over | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 56c | 65.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Over | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 39c | 56.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…c812backed Under | 55c | 50.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…019dbacked Over | 58c | 48.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 41c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 177 | 54.2%96 W · 81 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 31c | 39.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b73…45d9backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e42…8f95backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 44c | 32.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 162 | 54.9%89 W · 73 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 42c | 28.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 70c | 27.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 43c | 27.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 128 | 26.6%34 W · 94 L | -12.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 58c | 27.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 279 | 52%145 W · 134 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4630…fe96backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…d656backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…8e54backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 57c | 23.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Under | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de0…af02backed Over | 58c | 19.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5this page
- Canadiens vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Canadiens vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.