Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5393aa445e35c4fe5255dc04d1d65b254fc7f0c9af420908eadfe170d5cf74e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 719.28$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.78 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 22c | 594.53$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.59 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…6b6ebacked Yes | 35c | 299.78$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 66c | 294.82$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.7 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 199.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 186.31$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 180.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…648fbacked Yes | 27c | 157.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 45c | 137.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 10c | 136.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 132.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 76c | 117.17$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.19 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…8bf8backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dd…8a80backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…f2cfbacked Yes | 10c | 95.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 12c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 57c | 91.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 72c | 90.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…a7d6backed Yes | 35c | 83.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d7dfbacked Yes | 29c | 80.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 60c | 80.4$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 29c | 80.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe983…a371backed Yes | 28c | 72.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 31c | 70.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 72c | 66.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 66.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80b2…ea2fbacked Yes | 36c | 62.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81c0…8b96backed No | 72c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 21c | 52.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 52.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…dcebbacked Yes | 48c | 52.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 31c | 51.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 40c | 50.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…e50abacked Yes | 44c | 45.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -6.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x113a…5696backed No | 64c | 42.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eeb…0049backed Yes | 36c | 41.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…97efbacked No | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e37…0939backed No | 57c | 40.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…3fe4backed Yes | 44c | 34.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e40…34a4backed Yes | 36c | 30.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…4572backed Yes | 37c | 29.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ea…b3fbbacked Yes | 41c | 29.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 64c | 29.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…4092backed Yes | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…1b7cbacked Yes | 38c | 27.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 27.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed Yes | 57c | 26.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 23.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…9745backed Yes | 61c | 20.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 18.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 72c | 16.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe273…e74bbacked No | 70c | 14.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 69°F or below on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 84°F or higher on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on February 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on February 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.