Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb57992309d914c93f005acdf6c33f75bf63719140e95cf56df96b2c09060855b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 61c | 312.9$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.52 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 301.6$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.05 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 243.77$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.85 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 231.75$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 43c | 187.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…4df3backed Yes | 41c | 179.46$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 17c | 170.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 68c | 161.74$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 156.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 7c | 153.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 8c | 149.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 27c | 145.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 56c | 137.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.93 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 37c | 132.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.39 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 53c | 125.31$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 113.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 108.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 35c | 105.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 53c | 88.24$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 40c | 86.37$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8171…66a5backed No | 55c | 83.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 79.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 43c | 68.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 47c | 67.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 31c | 63.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 63c | 60.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08d6…a14cbacked Yes | 35c | 53.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 42c | 51.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.02 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea08…6191backed Yes | 48c | 51.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…abdbbacked Yes | 30c | 51.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 45c | 50.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 30c | 47.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 46.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 44c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 41.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 58c | 38.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 38c | 37.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 36c | 33.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 33.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 77c | 31.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9c…9aa1backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -5.2wins | -0.29per pick | 68cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed No | 60c | 29.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 59c | 29.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 38c | 28.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 52c | 28.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 72c | 28.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 61c | 23.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 67c | 21.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 76c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 61c | 19.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 67c | 17.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed Yes | 67c | 15.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 15.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 15.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.