Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3347fac80742df3ff41aeb443ac4f21c864eb7562e41b774ac5fa43e9aa28acd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed Yes | 0c | 4,133$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 16c | 732.72$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.64 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 245.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 212.5$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 180.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 177.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed Yes | 24c | 166.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 161.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 159.37$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 26c | 143.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…2116backed Yes | 26c | 141.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 9c | 119.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 31c | 116.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 33c | 97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 25c | 94.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 24c | 92.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 92.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 67c | 87.86$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 14c | 83.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 71c | 81.58$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 80.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 23c | 66.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 53.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked No | 68c | 51.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 24c | 48.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 22c | 46.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 27c | 44.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 78c | 39.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 75c | 32.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed No | 75c | 29.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…e245backed No | 77c | 16.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 86 | 76.7%66 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1efd…2cbdbacked No | 77c | 16.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 77c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 76c | 15.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 71c | 14.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…f4aebacked No | 75c | 13.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 70-71°F on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.