NHL · resolved market
AHL: Ontario Reign vs. Henderson Silver Knights
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5b59e54e323a1a71d74ab191ff10d6f9301b9b8c1ad76bbb3c3a7d585d5cccb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Henderson Silver Knightsof Ontario Reign, Henderson Silver Knights
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,733 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Henderson Silver Knights | 47c | 7,272$3,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,820.83 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…75a0backed Ontario Reign | 53c | 2,958$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,567.48 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Ontario Reign | 52c | 861.62$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x058e…a2acbacked Ontario Reign | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Ontario Reign | 54c | 660.42$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.9 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Henderson Silver Knights | 48c | 305.56$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.63 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…9b8fbacked Ontario Reign | 51c | 240.45$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.63 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Ontario Reign | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Ontario Reign | 54c | 189$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Ontario Reign | 51c | 183.12$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.39 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Ontario Reign | 51c | 183.08$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.37 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f47…ccc7backed Henderson Silver Knights | 47c | 161$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb86…ed65backed Ontario Reign | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…ed04backed Ontario Reign | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Ontario Reign | 50c | 111.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Ontario Reign | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Ontario Reign | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Ontario Reign | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 181 | 32%58 W · 123 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Henderson Silver Knights | 49c | 89.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af5…caebbacked Ontario Reign | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Ontario Reign | 50c | 71.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Ontario Reign | 20c | 70.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ontario Reign | 21c | 60.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Ontario Reign | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Ontario Reign | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Ontario Reign | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Ontario Reign | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Ontario Reign | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46bb…cba7backed Ontario Reign | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xada8…f97cbacked Ontario Reign | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Ontario Reign | 66c | 38.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…bcabbacked Ontario Reign | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Ontario Reign | 51c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1a…0b79backed Ontario Reign | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Ontario Reign | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Ontario Reign | 51c | 27.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed Ontario Reign | 51c | 24.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa049…4314backed Ontario Reign | 53c | 22.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Ontario Reign | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 451 | 49.4%223 W · 228 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…a9cebacked Ontario Reign | 51c | 20.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…1e38backed Ontario Reign | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.