Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5c61e1b7e69d423032f72d71184207c41a752cae51fde0ac7d317dcc78b1950
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 20c | 909.37$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.02 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 343.9$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 40c | 289.62$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.15 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 80c | 281.94$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 13c | 242.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 16c | 127.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 117.71$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.18 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 29c | 101.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 96.8$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 95.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 76c | 75.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 44c | 69.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 68.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 76c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 53c | 59.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…1118backed Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 76c | 44.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 38.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 31c | 34.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 51c | 34.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 45c | 33.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 35c | 31.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 59c | 29.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…c110backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 24.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed No | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f7…b1a8backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 79c | 17.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad5e…56ffbacked No | 79c | 16.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 15.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 76c | 13.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 76c | 13.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.