Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4268ac4f64b0a97b2942524823fdc6e0d306fa69ebe3ef2041bcf57c1b674de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 28c | 870.07$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.81 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 33c | 845.07$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.4 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 512.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…5566backed No | 7c | 461.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 378.29$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 10c | 371.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.03 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 348.94$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.48 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 336.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.6 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 291.2$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 29c | 280.18$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.57 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 20c | 249$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.71 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 206.68$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 183.53$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.23 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 183.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.92 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 169.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.79 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf14a…86d2backed Yes | 59c | 121.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 110.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked Yes | 29c | 109.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.61 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 109.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 96.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 70c | 91.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 88.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 82.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 45c | 73.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 70c | 71.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 74c | 60.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 29c | 59.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 69c | 57.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 42c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 50.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed No | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 65c | 49.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 47.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 36.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 70c | 32.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 71c | 26.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 72c | 20.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 69c | 15.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 72c | 13.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.