Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5ed09707156ffb8edd877c5673d556622b581bf0af2b5af5cf9941aa6064cc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 72c | 374.77$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.94 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 32c | 339.54$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.28 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 13c | 315.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 18c | 284.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.24 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 28c | 252.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.63 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 14c | 175.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 10c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 142.13$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb14d…8f95backed Yes | 14c | 139.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 72c | 109.84$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…6c41backed Yes | 27c | 108$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebfe…82f0backed Yes | 11c | 107.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…c3cbbacked Yes | 30c | 103.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 100.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 35c | 95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ee…2e89backed No | 74c | 94.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 94.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 13c | 93.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 87.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 82.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 16c | 78.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 29c | 71.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 20c | 68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 62.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 17c | 61.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9011…8330backed Yes | 27c | 58.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 68c | 57.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 73c | 51.56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…bc1cbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 64c | 49.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed Yes | 29c | 45.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 26c | 44.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 28c | 42.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561a…7be2backed Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 32c | 34.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 68c | 28.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 27.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 26.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…e940backed No | 71c | 19.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 70c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.