Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a67ab369df5c092a781731ede843bff41125bbab83725950d82c44c5956ed30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 37c | 270.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.57 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 9c | 234.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 64c | 214.37$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 36c | 176.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 7c | 168$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 61c | 154.93$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.86 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b3…f0bebacked No | 53c | 151.98$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.16 | 82 | 70.7%58 W · 24 L | +7.0wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 150.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 135.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 44c | 113.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 62c | 113$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…c3cbbacked Yes | 57c | 110.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 37c | 107.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 106.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 104.87$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 50c | 100.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x855e…de25backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 46c | 95.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 47c | 84.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 37c | 83.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 62c | 80.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked Yes | 42c | 75.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 46c | 75.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 74.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 62c | 71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 35c | 69.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 42c | 68.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb14d…8f95backed No | 50c | 68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 62c | 66.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 53c | 60.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 64c | 55.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 53.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 54c | 50.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde1…914bbacked Yes | 38c | 49.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 40c | 49.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 48.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 62c | 48.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 62c | 47.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 63c | 46.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 39c | 46.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 32c | 45.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 35c | 41.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 51c | 39.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 60c | 39.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 39.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 69c | 39.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 34.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9d…4a77backed Yes | 66c | 34.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 64c | 34.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 55c | 33.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 49c | 29.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 45c | 28.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 43c | 28.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 39c | 28.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 27.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a89…0e5dbacked No | 60c | 26.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 26.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 25.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 63c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc5…e61dbacked Yes | 47c | 23.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 57c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…e940backed No | 63c | 21.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked No | 62c | 20.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 65c | 20.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…707fbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 60c | 19.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 58c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 65c | 17.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 62c | 16.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 14.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.