Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f13aff06ace058887b890e1ed0b4e196d6546aabd7e6f3c15537dbff9b8ff07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 27c | 489.77$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.77 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 8c | 332.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 42c | 306.3$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 229.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.99 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 7c | 195.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 9c | 185.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 170.23$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 42c | 169.55$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 164.12$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 68c | 151.38$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 77c | 133$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.86 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 123.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 13c | 119.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 114.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.02 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 46c | 105.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9d…4a77backed Yes | 45c | 99.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…c3cbbacked No | 17c | 98.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 13c | 88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 24c | 86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 44c | 81.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb14d…8f95backed Yes | 54c | 74.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 67.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 30c | 64.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 39c | 63.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…9ab2backed Yes | 49c | 61.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +4.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 23c | 61.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 27c | 61.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 65c | 43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9426…745abacked Yes | 25c | 42.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 31c | 38.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 74c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 59c | 30.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 29.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 55c | 26.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 18.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…4145backed No | 63c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 67 | 16.4%11 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.