TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Athletics
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,264
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,970

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,264 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Athletics66c1,889$1,247 inLost-$1,246.9311,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b1…4b99backed Houston Astros34c1,765$600 inWon+$1,164.717546.9%82 W · 93 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61cd…541ebacked Athletics67c531.43$354 inLost-$353.5914864.2%95 W · 53 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Athletics12c432$52 inLost-$51.849,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros33c266.69$88 inWon+$178.683,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Houston Astros34c227.4$77 inWon+$149.943,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ca7…0a12backed Houston Astros40c100$40 inWon+$601154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.24per pick30cpaid+109.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros32c99.6$32 inWon+$67.738,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88fb…db3abacked Houston Astros34c88.24$30 inWon+$58.2473243.4%318 W · 414 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics66c54.56$36 inLost-$35.912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Athletics67c40$27 inLost-$26.81,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Athletics67c36$24 inLost-$24.1246854.5%255 W · 213 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Athletics67c36$24 inLost-$24.1272154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Houston Astros60c32$19 inWon+$12.830340.6%123 W · 180 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x48b9…abe2backed Houston Astros34c30$10 inWon+$19.834843.4%151 W · 197 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Athletics67c15$10 inLost-$10.051,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.