TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,139
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,133

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,139 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x815f…1eefbacked Under37c1,051$389 inWon+$661.9791252.4%478 W · 434 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over59c714.89$424 inLost-$423.7211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over44c560$245 inLost-$245.44,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over58c510.19$296 inLost-$295.749,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Under56c460$258 inWon+$202.489053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over51c312.97$160 inLost-$159.5512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under78c311.25$243 inWon+$68.343,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0684…d1fabacked Over43c232.56$100 inLost-$1007037.1%26 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under57c205.85$117 inWon+$88.5899447.3%470 W · 524 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under59c176.97$104 inWon+$73.388,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6717…d6ebbacked Under58c172.41$100 inWon+$72.4137256.5%210 W · 162 L+1.8wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91ba…8e5cbacked Under45c119.44$54 inWon+$65.691070%7 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+53.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Under50c100$50 inWon+$503,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under48c94.13$45 inWon+$48.898,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16f3…e1eebacked Under57c75$43 inWon+$32.511256.3%63 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Over43c69.76$30 inLost-$3094549%463 W · 482 L-38.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over16c61.97$10 inLost-$10.214,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1631…072dbacked Under57c49.09$28 inWon+$21.2577353.9%417 W · 356 L+35.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb77…1c78backed Under41c43.9$18 inWon+$25.927646.7%129 W · 147 L+10.8wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67f4…87bdbacked Under58c27.97$16 inWon+$11.756256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x167a…d542backed Under38c27$10 inWon+$16.7430340.6%123 W · 180 L-16.4wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Over48c25$12 inLost-$1277836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Under50c23.74$12 inWon+$11.872,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x523c…2c05backed Under72c20$14 inWon+$5.613053.1%69 W · 61 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe7b2…6a58backed Under58c18$10 inWon+$7.5612753.5%68 W · 59 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.