MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb614582f062fd70b3c6470d24ca344807fb9f77857e225cca755050590077850
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Texas Rangers, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,555 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 980.99$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.05 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Texas Rangers | 43c | 612.18$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.68 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Texas Rangers | 48c | 499.97$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.99 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 430.81$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.79 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 406.11$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.41 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Texas Rangers | 12c | 353.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Texas Rangers | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Texas Rangers | 8c | 276$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de4…7f2ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 263$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.59 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 252$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 160$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Texas Rangers | 44c | 54.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Texas Rangers | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…4692backed Texas Rangers | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 403 | 51.4%207 W · 196 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 39.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Texas Rangers | 44c | 36.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 31.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…1ac3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.