Fifa International · resolved market
Will Ukraine vs. France end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb61af9e3b7f2e7b392e90410da925b0c9ed60e233a23ae4a84e50abd8540e091
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 6,980$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.21 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…94dcbacked Yes | 13c | 3,892$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 18c | 3,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Yes | 16c | 1,075$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.01 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 4c | 1,044$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 281 | 33.1%93 W · 188 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…048ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 19c | 767.2$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.42 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 17c | 639.83$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.77 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c5…3c1bbacked Yes | 30c | 366.03$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfb…de50backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5045…7e27backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -84%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60f3…7198backed Yes | 17c | 148.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +11.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…bbe0backed Yes | 10c | 140.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…f458backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 79c | 104.76$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…d632backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1657…c27ebacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 19c | 52.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…5d35backed Yes | 19c | 52.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 360 | 38.1%137 W · 223 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ukraine vs. France end in a draw?this page
- Will France win on 2025-09-05?Yes won
- Will Ukraine win on 2025-09-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.