Fifa International · resolved market
Will Ukraine win on 2025-09-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff4871e071292e252a22728c1edd94f7675960528afd429c571a9b43dc072810
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 10c | 51,979$5,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,197.95 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 11c | 25,000$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 12c | 5,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x890f…31b5backed Yes | 11c | 4,845$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 6c | 1,344$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Yes | 11c | 1,216$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.73 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eaf…54b9backed Yes | 5c | 1,065$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a7…75e2backed Yes | 11c | 914.09$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 11c | 727.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7c…5947backed Yes | 5c | 566$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…2903backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 11c | 321.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 10c | 318.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 11c | 295$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…0554backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f38…16e2backed Yes | 11c | 196.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe69e…61d2backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…bca3backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88a6…405fbacked Yes | 11c | 161.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…97c8backed Yes | 11c | 159$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c27…59dabacked Yes | 9c | 153.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x051a…75d7backed Yes | 11c | 136.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…95a6backed Yes | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…5d35backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfb…de50backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9be…27bcbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…7745backed Yes | 11c | 99.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4733…aa88backed Yes | 11c | 91.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfb…7d18backed Yes | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ukraine win on 2025-09-05?this page
- Will France win on 2025-09-05?Yes won
- Will Ukraine vs. France end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.