South American Leagues · resolved market
Red Bull Bragantino vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb628750b36951c05e1fdfc7fc647d474a0ae3b856b7f5fed2da2881ea1357fd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,358 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 2,602$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.61 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 38c | 553.03$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 53c | 434.57$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.14 | 181 | 60.2%109 W · 72 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 38c | 391.6$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.58 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 39c | 375.41$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.86 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c0…06a0backed Over | 35c | 333$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 40c | 272.5$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 61c | 267.47$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.13 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 24c | 206.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…d5e6backed Under | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 18c | 167.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Over | 26c | 143$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 43c | 125.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 44c | 99.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Under | 45c | 84.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Over | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…4d2abacked Under | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 68c | 30.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Under | 61c | 25.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 59c | 23.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Over | 79c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4049…25e4backed Under | 61c | 20.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 77c | 13.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 3.5this page
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5Over won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)Botafogo FR won
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-2.5)Botafogo FR won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.