Weather · resolved market
Megaquake in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb655a5eb8829d2aca283da63aa93084031dde0ce729dbe6f07f4fa50b16ce526
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 8c | 15,470$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.19 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fd…829ebacked Yes | 8c | 5,000$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…c539backed Yes | 9c | 2,249$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…2f64backed Yes | 2c | 1,543$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 1,276$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004f…9612backed Yes | 2c | 1,047$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…892bbacked Yes | 8c | 871.94$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 5c | 685.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…4867backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 7c | 297.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked Yes | 10c | 253.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 10c | 110$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.