NHL · resolved market
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb660fc7b3b24cae10dc8e209f824d332d3c5747d2d39fdbfe1aa5db9f0619d47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Marliesof Chicago Wolves, Toronto Marlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96a5…b4fabacked Chicago Wolves | 41c | 14,866$6,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,124.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Toronto Marlies | 64c | 5,694$3,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040.18 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Toronto Marlies | 49c | 2,377$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Toronto Marlies | 65c | 1,868$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.68 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Toronto Marlies | 65c | 1,371$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…7784backed Chicago Wolves | 50c | 776.44$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.38 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Toronto Marlies | 39c | 696.04$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.59 | 222 | 50.5%112 W · 110 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…055bbacked Toronto Marlies | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7381…5b63backed Toronto Marlies | 49c | 320$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 600 | 42.8%257 W · 343 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Toronto Marlies | 60c | 265$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Toronto Marlies | 44c | 222.15$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.04 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Toronto Marlies | 58c | 213.58$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.29 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Chicago Wolves | 7c | 208.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Toronto Marlies | 56c | 191.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…a117backed Toronto Marlies | 60c | 176.83$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Toronto Marlies | 64c | 160.06$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.56 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Toronto Marlies | 50c | 117.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Chicago Wolves | 40c | 97.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Toronto Marlies | 58c | 83.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d1…6194backed Toronto Marlies | 65c | 67.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…04a3backed Toronto Marlies | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Toronto Marlies | 50c | 56.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Toronto Marlies | 51c | 51.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Toronto Marlies | 50c | 51.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Toronto Marlies | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Toronto Marlies | 50c | 48.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Toronto Marlies | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Toronto Marlies | 51c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Chicago Wolves | 48c | 36.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +48%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Toronto Marlies | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Chicago Wolves | 49c | 31.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…fbbbbacked Toronto Marlies | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Chicago Wolves | 50c | 30.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…c4fcbacked Toronto Marlies | 65c | 27.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Chicago Wolves | 42c | 26.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Toronto Marlies | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Toronto Marlies | 64c | 23.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd021…1425backed Chicago Wolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d70…ae13backed Toronto Marlies | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.