MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6a30cb19f32f313a089620d696e22d39a11cd8552a7142230e79b2d9da9969f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 1,269$939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.92 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 961.01$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 26c | 762.16$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.16 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 612.5$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.75 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed St. Louis Cardinals | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.44 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 499.99$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 388.4$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.81 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 181.63$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.98 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 48c | 136.52$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 71c | 89.94$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 69.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 64.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 54.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 54.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 35.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed St. Louis Cardinals | 39c | 33.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed St. Louis Cardinals | 40c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…e04dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 29.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 29.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 17.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- NRFI: Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis CardinalsTampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.