MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef88d42368e797af84be7a0066b8541ab992c17efede04c6256ed710fbbea66c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 53c | 51,513$27,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,360.26 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 21,227$10,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,088.02 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Under | 47c | 4,845$2,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,277 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 48c | 3,500$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 47c | 3,191$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.77 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 2,579$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.55 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…440abacked Under | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 47c | 1,490$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.3 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…d83abacked Under | 47c | 1,100$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 44cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 1,078$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.64 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 815.57$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.23 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 47c | 700$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 48c | 357.19$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.45 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 347.56$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.05 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Under | 48c | 310$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under | 47c | 297.87$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -6.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 47c | 275.75$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.92 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 51c | 259.83$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.32 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 48c | 229.17$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca4…aa92backed Over | 53c | 207.55$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e0…d084backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Under | 50c | 177$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 168.1$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 48c | 159.14$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 47c | 114.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 48c | 111.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 48c | 101.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 51c | 99.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 47c | 76.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 46c | 75.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba00…747cbacked Under | 48c | 74.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -8.1wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 52c | 69.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 52c | 66.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Over | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 47c | 55.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Under | 48c | 54.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd45…f2aabacked Under | 49c | 50.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d08…9e8dbacked Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…0b88backed Over | 55c | 43.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Over | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf98…a5c3backed Under | 48c | 31.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Under | 48c | 30.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…7379backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…a98fbacked Under | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1f…4b58backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…405abacked Under | 48c | 26.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 51c | 25.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 47c | 23.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…e9b9backed Over | 51c | 22.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Under | 48c | 22.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6da7…762abacked Under | 49c | 21.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…6221backed Under | 52c | 20.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
- NRFI: Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis CardinalsTampa Bay Rays won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.