MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6a85500003b8252d8e6f39433c1a27a6d50dccbfe5cb6552094494166b75a75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof New York Yankees, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York Yankees | 44c | 623.77$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.46 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed New York Yankees | 45c | 494.99$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.26 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked New York Yankees | 65c | 291.32$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.06 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 157.59$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 146.2$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 146.2$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 146.2$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 146.2$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 146.2$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 146.2$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Miami Marlins | 58c | 134.46$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked New York Yankees | 43c | 117.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed New York Yankees | 45c | 106.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5db…b42dbacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 82.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.68 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 65.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Miami Marlins | 57c | 37.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed New York Yankees | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Miami Marlins | 56c | 24.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 18.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York YankeesMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.