MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x518ead7dae84798bcc84694a88b1cf5a824a05f29aacf073a9d5eb8cfa454dcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,324
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,324 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f7c…7a19backed Over | 50c | 984.55$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.28 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 62c | 647.16$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.2 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 631.84$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.92 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 33c | 591.41$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.44 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 565.92$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 471.26$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.62 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 55c | 394$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.7 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 36c | 390$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 74c | 376.39$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.86 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7663…c9aabacked Over | 50c | 334.49$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.25 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 45c | 316.4$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.02 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1880…a421backed Over | 63c | 310.98$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.43 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 51c | 261.31$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.85 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 50c | 251.3$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.43 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 60c | 223.09$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.15 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 76c | 201.39$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.5wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Under | 53c | 146.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Under | 48c | 135$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 131.11$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 51c | 117.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 46c | 104.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 49c | 84.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 49c | 70.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 64.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 45c | 58.56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…c2e9backed Under | 38c | 52.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 42c | 48.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 54c | 48.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 54c | 48.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ad…d3fbbacked Over | 49c | 47.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Over | 49c | 47.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Over | 49c | 47.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 43.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…6fa2backed Under | 41c | 33.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 79c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Under | 51c | 25.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 50c | 24.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 51c | 23.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Over | 50c | 22.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba2…f46bbacked Over | 50c | 22.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 50c | 22.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 49c | 21.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Over | 49c | 21.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 128 | 64.1%82 W · 46 L | +11.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Under | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. New York YankeesMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.