TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Miami Marlinsof New York Yankees, Miami Marlins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$224,014
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$220,213

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,014 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Miami Marlins44c98,806$43,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,331.5431039%121 W · 189 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Miami Marlins43c59,960$25,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,176.9650153.5%268 W · 233 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5318…1118backed New York Yankees56c52,102$29,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,176.846752.2%35 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed New York Yankees57c34,204$19,496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,496.1910547.6%50 W · 55 L+9.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed New York Yankees56c23,145$12,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,959.0132152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked New York Yankees56c19,052$10,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,661.941,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Miami Marlins44c12,083$5,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,813.5765050.3%327 W · 323 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed New York Yankees57c11,073$6,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,310.456,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Miami Marlins44c7,590$3,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,250.6331149.2%153 W · 158 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ea…476cbacked New York Yankees57c5,127$2,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,922.61346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Miami Marlins44c3,975$1,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,225.9121748.4%105 W · 112 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked New York Yankees55c3,868$2,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,127.221,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked New York Yankees59c3,615$2,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,140.181,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked New York Yankees55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.9967250.1%337 W · 335 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e4a…311cbacked New York Yankees53c2,632$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.2212247.5%58 W · 64 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins44c2,200$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2326,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked New York Yankees53c2,121$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.361,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab4e…c4a0backed Miami Marlins47c1,863$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.283438.2%13 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed New York Yankees55c1,786$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.375049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees57c1,447$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.194,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b6…672abacked New York Yankees54c1,430$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.413935.9%14 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Miami Marlins51c1,376$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.962,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins45c1,294$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$716.945,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Miami Marlins45c1,289$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.1314156%79 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees47c1,237$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.5612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked New York Yankees57c1,182$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.691,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed New York Yankees57c1,111$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.231,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb080…5eddbacked New York Yankees56c1,106$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.562030%6 W · 14 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-35.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2734…6d9ebacked Miami Marlins44c1,098$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.985450%27 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc7…7f02backed New York Yankees56c981.48$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.636055%33 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4e9…a66dbacked New York Yankees57c970.78$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.35475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Miami Marlins46c954.63$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.51,04349%511 W · 532 L+3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9621…0a73backed New York Yankees56c869.29$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.818658.6%109 W · 77 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67e2…42d9backed New York Yankees57c854.56$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.1757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Miami Marlins43c781.73$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.5923351.1%119 W · 114 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed New York Yankees57c728.99$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.521,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfcf4…66bbbacked New York Yankees57c692.19$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.556253.2%33 W · 29 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked New York Yankees55c672.25$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.7411844.1%52 W · 66 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ad8…8a2cbacked New York Yankees56c630.89$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.33948.7%19 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed Miami Marlins55c603.83$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.2151756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Miami Marlins45c580.2$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.119021.1%19 W · 71 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-51.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2643…39aebacked New York Yankees56c578.94$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.216758.2%39 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Miami Marlins45c554.55$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.611,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Miami Marlins45c552.13$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.3810548.6%51 W · 54 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a49…651abacked New York Yankees56c535.48$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8723052.6%121 W · 109 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63a7…3bb2backed New York Yankees56c518.8$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.144158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x87f0…361dbacked New York Yankees56c500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2809554.7%52 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed Miami Marlins46c499.99$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.512552%65 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed New York Yankees57c427.28$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.5540348.4%195 W · 208 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd73a…0f4ebacked New York Yankees56c394.79$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.0941152.3%215 W · 196 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x246d…c74dbacked New York Yankees56c384.22$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.172152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed New York Yankees47c357.14$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.661,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed New York Yankees47c353.44$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.7139351.9%204 W · 189 L+1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins47c350$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1862,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed New York Yankees57c345.42$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.8920455.9%114 W · 90 L+0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed New York Yankees47c345.1$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.011,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd6f…bad3backed Miami Marlins45c341.93$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.063537.1%13 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-31.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked New York Yankees58c336.14$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.9638455.2%212 W · 172 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ab…8c2ebacked New York Yankees59c332.64$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.042045%9 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed New York Yankees57c331.84$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.12,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed New York Yankees55c299.99$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.991,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked New York Yankees50c271.26$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.6329547.1%139 W · 156 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6941…d614backed New York Yankees51c262.46$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1332147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ba…b99abacked New York Yankees56c260.79$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.042941.4%12 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-24.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins33c253.42$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.229,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed New York Yankees49c250.61$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.543043%185 W · 245 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked New York Yankees56c236.43$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5534452.6%181 W · 163 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed New York Yankees56c236.39$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5325349.4%125 W · 128 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Miami Marlins45c232$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.665549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaed…5749backed New York Yankees57c231.05$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.73548.6%17 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed New York Yankees56c224.34$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.7215753.5%84 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe48c…68fbbacked New York Yankees57c222.19$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.653751.4%19 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed New York Yankees53c220.03$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.6244348.5%215 W · 228 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Miami Marlins45c214.89$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1924950.6%126 W · 123 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9a…a9a8backed New York Yankees56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1122532%8 W · 17 L-5.5wins-0.22per pick54cpaid-38.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe6fe…6a33backed Miami Marlins50c193.71$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.858144.4%36 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed New York Yankees48c189.35$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.811,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed New York Yankees52c184.53$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.9521242.5%90 W · 122 L-13.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa42c…b22ebacked New York Yankees57c178.28$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.628045%36 W · 44 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked New York Yankees57c178.28$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6245246.2%209 W · 243 L-18.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7335…dd65backed New York Yankees57c178.28$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.622045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked New York Yankees55c176.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.318151.4%93 W · 88 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91bc…28d6backed New York Yankees56c173.86$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3619754.8%108 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xae7b…aec1backed New York Yankees56c172.98$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.372142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfdce…f9e2backed New York Yankees54c172.4$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed New York Yankees57c170.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4227146.9%127 W · 144 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked New York Yankees57c170.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4218345.4%83 W · 100 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5625…6c2abacked New York Yankees57c170.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.428558.8%50 W · 35 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x79f1…178abacked New York Yankees57c170.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.424047.5%19 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked New York Yankees57c170.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4224348.1%117 W · 126 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9e3…cb10backed New York Yankees55c165$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.751030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed New York Yankees57c162.81$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.815847.5%75 W · 83 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x483a…4fd0backed New York Yankees56c156.47$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.628051.3%41 W · 39 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8882…c67dbacked Miami Marlins45c137.98$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.89650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa209…d90ebacked New York Yankees57c136.39$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.741353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaea…4bbfbacked New York Yankees56c130.39$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.028652.3%45 W · 41 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+29.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Miami Marlins44c124.41$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.671,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed New York Yankees55c123.84$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1156946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d14…ff3ebacked New York Yankees55c123.84$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1112845.3%58 W · 70 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ca5…85edbacked New York Yankees56c121.7$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.152240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.