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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Spirit, VP.Prodigy
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$69,239
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,867

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,239 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86b1…c094backed VP.Prodigy1c22,963$143 inLost-$143.0166325.5%169 W · 494 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed VP.Prodigy11c7,639$816 inLost-$816.195146.2%439 W · 512 L-19.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed VP.Prodigy10c2,038$204 inLost-$204.228641.3%118 W · 168 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed VP.Prodigy5c1,877$99 inLost-$98.7520030.5%61 W · 139 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked VP.Prodigy11c1,702$187 inLost-$187.278248.8%40 W · 42 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58f1…7032backed VP.Prodigy10c1,601$160 inLost-$160.1429650.3%149 W · 147 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked VP.Prodigy12c1,407$169 inLost-$168.871,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb24f…3432backed VP.Prodigy3c1,300$40 inLost-$4013742.3%58 W · 79 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed VP.Prodigy11c1,043$111 inLost-$110.531,58443.8%694 W · 890 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed VP.Prodigy1c1,000$10 inLost-$102110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked VP.Prodigy11c1,000$110 inLost-$11047341.6%197 W · 276 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed VP.Prodigy10c941.15$91 inLost-$90.842,85143.6%1,243 W · 1,608 L-39.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked VP.Prodigy7c677.9$46 inLost-$46.3930844.8%138 W · 170 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed VP.Prodigy7c521.44$39 inLost-$3972543%312 W · 413 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…38e8backed VP.Prodigy3c517.49$14 inLost-$13.923523.1%11 W · 341 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-51.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba5e…f9c4backed VP.Prodigy10c500$50 inLost-$503951.3%20 W · 19 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed VP.Prodigy8c500$38 inLost-$37.562841.1%258 W · 370 L-17.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd0…08f6backed VP.Prodigy10c489.62$48 inLost-$486147.5%29 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked VP.Prodigy4c455$16 inLost-$16.4432756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked VP.Prodigy8c452.32$34 inLost-$34.271,76041.1%723 W · 1,037 L-48.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked VP.Prodigy7c250$18 inLost-$17.522240.1%89 W · 133 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x010b…5f66backed VP.Prodigy11c204.45$22 inLost-$21.62528%7 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-42.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c7e…b429backed VP.Prodigy13c165.62$21 inLost-$21.33757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked VP.Prodigy12c161.54$20 inLost-$2025446.9%119 W · 135 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c2…45b2backed VP.Prodigy11c140.24$15 inLost-$15.4310741.1%44 W · 63 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed VP.Prodigy8c128.3$10 inLost-$1054234.3%186 W · 356 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x081f…9fcdbacked VP.Prodigy10c110.95$11 inLost-$11.09825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5480…b38cbacked VP.Prodigy13c98.99$13 inLost-$12.63135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-29.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.