Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x156593bf990e47a7d90b7d1939fce2d3b412a3e87b1384d826f0158b50b7a422
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, VP.Prodigy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed VP.Prodigy | 20c | 1,430$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.57 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…d450backed VP.Prodigy | 13c | 1,166$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.52 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206c…2b8dbacked VP.Prodigy | 13c | 1,007$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2776…4ecbbacked Team Spirit | 79c | 856.62$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.86 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed VP.Prodigy | 13c | 854.53$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed VP.Prodigy | 19c | 617.17$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.26 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed VP.Prodigy | 13c | 574$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed VP.Prodigy | 12c | 501$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed VP.Prodigy | 19c | 494.67$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked VP.Prodigy | 13c | 465.8$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Team Spirit | 78c | 457.67$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.11 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed VP.Prodigy | 21c | 457.67$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.11 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…48cabacked VP.Prodigy | 12c | 429.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…4771backed VP.Prodigy | 15c | 415$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Team Spirit | 78c | 399.28$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.3 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked VP.Prodigy | 16c | 289.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked VP.Prodigy | 14c | 255.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed VP.Prodigy | 16c | 238.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed Team Spirit | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked VP.Prodigy | 12c | 126$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked VP.Prodigy | 15c | 115.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 325 | 48.9%159 W · 166 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6f…9f0abacked VP.Prodigy | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 161 | 39.8%64 W · 97 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed VP.Prodigy | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Team Spirit | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.