CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Fraternity vs XI Esport (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6abd01244facf0330585965a5342dfb0119798a743fc96bc118a099683129d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fraternityof Fraternity, XI Esport
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdcce…c920backed XI Esport | 71c | 280.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 173 | 61.3%106 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Fraternity | 22c | 242.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.61 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked XI Esport | 35c | 174.41$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…4e6abacked XI Esport | 59c | 151.85$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.06 | 265 | 54.3%144 W · 121 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…3bcdbacked Fraternity | 41c | 122$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 351 | 31.1%109 W · 242 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0035…6e64backed XI Esport | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked XI Esport | 32c | 64.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5f…0689backed Fraternity | 20c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Fraternity | 42c | 57.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…934fbacked Fraternity | 26c | 53.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 324 | 63%204 W · 120 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…c5b4backed XI Esport | 58c | 52.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 351 | 53.8%189 W · 162 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…c0f7backed XI Esport | 53c | 38.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a80…df6dbacked XI Esport | 51c | 35.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 108 | 67.6%73 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…2be7backed XI Esport | 44c | 34.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Fraternity | 47c | 31.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 512 | 52.1%267 W · 245 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…6cedbacked XI Esport | 73c | 30.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb71e…641abacked Fraternity | 60c | 27.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Fraternity | 58c | 25.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked XI Esport | 47c | 22.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 597 | 3%18 W · 579 L | -221.0wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 11-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked XI Esport | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.