South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6ad1114d79bfea9a358b9570c9b1059fc1265d6b891fb4ce0c655b2310a008d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 60c | 7,415$4,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,978.51 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 40c | 4,962$1,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.03 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 49c | 4,940$2,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,441.47 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 56c | 2,946$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.39 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Yes | 39c | 2,415$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.22 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 40c | 1,813$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.61 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 40c | 1,700$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed No | 43c | 1,017$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.47 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Yes | 52c | 956.81$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.81 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked No | 42c | 833.33$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 34c | 746.8$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.46 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 50c | 726$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.49 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 56c | 618.01$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.56 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 51c | 606$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.87 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 57c | 563.08$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.02 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…d650backed Yes | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.54 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 40c | 527.79$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.51 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 52c | 446.19$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.05 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 60c | 396$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.54 | 181 | 60.2%109 W · 72 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 58c | 356.13$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.19 | 459 | 46.8%215 W · 244 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…43c9backed Yes | 62c | 323.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 145 | 70.3%102 W · 43 L | +22.6wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 40c | 173$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 77c | 167.09$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 32c | 152.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 33c | 142$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.52 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +18.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 47c | 138.38$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 57c | 128.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 39c | 126.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.06 | 123 | 31.7%39 W · 84 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 57c | 120.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 267 | 49.4%132 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed No | 40c | 113$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 138 | 33.3%46 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 39c | 106.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7f…3223backed Yes | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…41adbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 37c | 77.01$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 52c | 69.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…106cbacked No | 46c | 59.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 60c | 59.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 201 | 42.3%85 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 57c | 50.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 58c | 50.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…6ef3backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed No | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae5d…05e8backed Yes | 61c | 49.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa837…2926backed Yes | 60c | 43.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 41c | 40.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 259 | 55.2%143 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…a7ecbacked Yes | 52c | 38.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 66c | 37.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 43c | 36.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd9…77f6backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…e49cbacked Yes | 60c | 31.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 43c | 29.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 212 | 66.5%141 W · 71 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…2decbacked No | 41c | 27.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f8…f40ebacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will Club Necaxa vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-02-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.