Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6c0fc2d2863ef94a3ec3086ae549a56268c36b3b77036bbec58e6f0300e2072
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 961.79$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.82 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 35c | 399.13$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.36 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 20c | 205.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 167.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 148$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 65c | 144.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 31c | 133.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 10c | 119.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 113.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 105$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 104$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 18c | 100.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 94.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 16c | 91.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 89.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 25c | 79.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 67c | 78.08$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 76.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 36c | 67.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…0e5dbacked Yes | 27c | 62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 24c | 53.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 52.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 51.94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…78f8backed Yes | 39c | 51.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 49.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 74c | 45.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 40.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 39.27$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 34c | 30.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…5992backed No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 68c | 21.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 75c | 17.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 76c | 17.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 67c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…293cbacked No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…0009backed No | 75c | 13.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 5?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.