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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on August 25?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,002
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,178

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,002 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes9c409.99$38 inLost-$38.43,93923.2%913 W · 3,026 L+125.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes20c147.38$30 inLost-$29.7762323.8%148 W · 475 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes16c147.01$23 inLost-$23.191,67137.9%633 W · 1,038 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes22c136.36$30 inLost-$3067138.9%261 W · 410 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b98…8595backed Yes13c133.14$17 inLost-$1731612.7%40 W · 276 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes22c130.79$29 inLost-$28.7355742.5%237 W · 320 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+40.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No75c114.42$85 inWon+$29.025,62547.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes19c111$21 inLost-$21.0963733.4%213 W · 424 L+24.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No79c95.32$76 inWon+$19.774,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No74c79.16$59 inWon+$20.361,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes38c74.59$28 inLost-$28.0312,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No75c72$54 inWon+$17.82,25458.2%1,311 W · 943 L+84.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No36c64$23 inWon+$40.9617436.2%63 W · 111 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+27.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecc8…9335backed No75c62.78$47 inWon+$15.4521363.4%135 W · 78 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6780…41ccbacked Yes45c53.67$24 inLost-$24.1528251.1%144 W · 138 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked Yes31c48.17$15 inLost-$14.831,24461.7%767 W · 477 L+25.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No67c45.79$31 inWon+$14.932,17653.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L+36.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2edc…a207backed No56c45.06$25 inWon+$19.729929.3%29 W · 70 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No42c42.53$18 inWon+$24.541,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No78c42.19$33 inWon+$9.281,12855.4%625 W · 503 L-30.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No54c41.27$22 inWon+$1912,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No77c39.17$30 inWon+$9.011,31454%709 W · 605 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No35c35$12 inWon+$22.751,17734.9%411 W · 766 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No71c32$23 inWon+$9.285,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon+$13.82,69147.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L+48.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0458…ddc2backed Yes44c28.33$12 inLost-$12.435930.5%18 W · 41 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No77c23.23$18 inWon+$5.285,00353.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L+31.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.