Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb732ee6187e84aa8348079730df8824a88ffdacc04dcac65ce55da179eb4435a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona State Sun Devilsof Kansas Jayhawks, Arizona State Sun Devils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe584…e6e2backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 51c | 3,907$1,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,925.72 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…87bdbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 52c | 2,859$1,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.52 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Kansas Jayhawks | 50c | 1,614$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.53 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kansas Jayhawks | 49c | 1,186$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.97 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kansas Jayhawks | 48c | 1,004$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.69 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Kansas Jayhawks | 49c | 1,000$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Kansas Jayhawks | 51c | 999.81$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.9 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…820fbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 49c | 969.45$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.42 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 50c | 495.63$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.81 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 51c | 396.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.97 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kansas Jayhawks | 50c | 379.63$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.43 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c58…beb0backed Kansas Jayhawks | 52c | 190.63$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 48c | 148.69$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17c2…9c06backed Kansas Jayhawks | 55c | 108.15$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Kansas Jayhawks | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd598…c67cbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…0c2bbacked Kansas Jayhawks | 55c | 90.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Kansas Jayhawks | 52c | 89.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 64c | 79.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Kansas Jayhawks | 55c | 74.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Kansas Jayhawks | 52c | 72.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kansas Jayhawks | 48c | 64.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…a219backed Kansas Jayhawks | 51c | 58.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Kansas Jayhawks | 52c | 47.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Arizona State Sun Devils | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 61c | 39.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas Jayhawks | 48c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…3a5bbacked Kansas Jayhawks | 54c | 34.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Arizona State Sun Devils | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-5.5)this page
- Kansas Jayhawks vs. Arizona State Sun DevilsArizona State Sun Devils won
- Kansas Jayhawks vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 151.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-6.5)Arizona State Sun Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.