Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 151.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d09a376346a477f05d3323497a1310cdb796c73de936663aa9829fd6ca1b0ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc1e…8972backed Over | 49c | 16,358$8,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,057.35 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 7,254$3,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,576.86 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 50c | 1,853$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.66 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 51c | 1,654$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.65 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Under | 51c | 1,648$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.72 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Under | 53c | 1,121$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.84 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed Under | 52c | 762.51$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.01 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 600.06$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.03 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 46c | 587.84$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.33 | 741 | 52.6%390 W · 351 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 50c | 543.9$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.95 | 558 | 40.3%225 W · 333 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 47c | 340.01$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Under | 52c | 285.94$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.25 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…e67abacked Under | 52c | 247.82$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.95 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 51c | 196.27$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 308 | 53.2%164 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…7ea5backed Under | 51c | 194.36$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.24 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Under | 52c | 190.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 833 | 50.2%418 W · 415 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed Under | 53c | 149.63$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Under | 51c | 118.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.29 | 172 | 41.3%71 W · 101 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 505 | 48.9%247 W · 258 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 214 | 55.6%119 W · 95 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 79.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Under | 52c | 77.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 225 | 44.9%101 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 50c | 63.35$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…1848backed Under | 52c | 58.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9651…0488backed Under | 53c | 56.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff0b…befabacked Under | 53c | 56.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -8.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6d…a962backed Under | 53c | 55.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 48c | 51.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Under | 54c | 46.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 51c | 39.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 47c | 38.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 612 | 44.9%275 W · 337 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 48c | 36.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 67c | 34.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…8bb1backed Over | 48c | 33.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 51c | 28.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 485 | 51.1%248 W · 237 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…8c39backed Under | 53c | 27.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 193 | 48.7%94 W · 99 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…8d6dbacked Under | 61c | 23.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 934 | 47.9%447 W · 487 L | -19.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…745dbacked Under | 51c | 19.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 241 | 48.5%117 W · 124 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…3a63backed Under | 51c | 19.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kansas Jayhawks vs. Arizona State Sun Devils: O/U 151.5this page
- Kansas Jayhawks vs. Arizona State Sun DevilsArizona State Sun Devils won
- Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-5.5)Arizona State Sun Devils won
- Spread: Kansas Jayhawks (-6.5)Arizona State Sun Devils won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.