TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on July 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,973
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,536

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,973 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes33c1,286$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.6728324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes17c1,114$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.197223.6%17 W · 55 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-44.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes29c551.68$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.321,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No71c389.09$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.292,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No71c221$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.924,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes17c159.12$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.82,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes36c150$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No75c116.56$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.651,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes16c116.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.846,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes27c103.44$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.879,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes12c100.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.257,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x173a…eb85backed No67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335547.3%26 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes14c94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.231,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No68c93$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3754253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes22c87.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0390734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes21c78.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.693,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes16c72.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.38,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No73c71.13$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked No65c71.04$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5417255.2%95 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No63c70$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.11,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No67c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.575,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf993…ad52backed Yes29c59.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.44443.2%19 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1646457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe37a…844dbacked No73c46.19$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4712876.6%98 W · 30 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed No75c42.75$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.794552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No75c42.68$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.683,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9388…ad42backed No71c35.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.2313959.7%83 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc5…d6b7backed No74c35.23$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0627461.7%169 W · 105 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No75c35$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7589557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63a1…0212backed No74c30.4$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.925258.7%148 W · 104 L-0.8wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa9e…2264backed Yes33c30.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0210351.5%53 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x634d…4d02backed No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.812747.2%60 W · 67 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No77c26.27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9994066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No67c22.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.323,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No71c20.64$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.011,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529354.3%159 W · 134 L-25.6wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-15.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No68c19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1463255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4eab…2caabacked No76c18.44$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4544567%298 W · 147 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No68c18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.764,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d38…825dbacked No68c17.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.642552%13 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.14per pick66cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.