TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Europa Conference League · resolved market

Spread: MH Beitar Jerusalem (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
AEK Lárnakasof MH Beitar Jerusalem, AEK Lárnakas
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,661
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,665

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,661 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xadfb…c2efbacked AEK Lárnakas77c1,346$1,030 inWon+$316.0496947.5%460 W · 509 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed MH Beitar Jerusalem24c1,072$258 inLost-$258.12,47333.9%839 W · 1,634 L-95.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x676e…28c5backed MH Beitar Jerusalem23c710.32$160 inLost-$1605119.6%10 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9360…8dd7backed MH Beitar Jerusalem24c420.32$100 inLost-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed AEK Lárnakas75c330$249 inWon+$80.8638144.1%168 W · 213 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed AEK Lárnakas78c140.9$110 inWon+$30.471,57355.7%876 W · 697 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed AEK Lárnakas76c119.57$91 inWon+$28.150154.7%274 W · 227 L+20.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed AEK Lárnakas76c116.95$89 inWon+$28.0337043.8%162 W · 208 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked AEK Lárnakas74c65.49$48 inWon+$17.2937046.5%172 W · 198 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed AEK Lárnakas78c64.29$50 inWon+$14.0479354.2%430 W · 363 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed AEK Lárnakas79c37.39$30 inWon+$7.8565549.8%326 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed AEK Lárnakas75c21.33$16 inWon+$5.3323653%125 W · 111 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fb9…c170backed AEK Lárnakas80c12.52$10 inWon+$2.511860.2%71 W · 47 L-0.3wins0.00per pick60cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.