Europa Conference League · resolved market
MH Beitar Jerusalem vs. AEK Lárnakas: Team to Advance
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcf2c0ec96f8ec4a2e9e38ee1cf21135d248712c9dc9a98cb9b245b6d38ac6ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MH Beitar Jerusalemof MH Beitar Jerusalem, AEK Lárnakas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked AEK Lárnakas | 49c | 1,869$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.7 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed AEK Lárnakas | 14c | 1,732$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.05 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…3bcebacked AEK Lárnakas | 22c | 1,002$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +152.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MH Beitar Jerusalem | 49c | 939.47$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.24 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed MH Beitar Jerusalem | 47c | 809.33$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.83 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed MH Beitar Jerusalem | 55c | 500$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.5 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed MH Beitar Jerusalem | 78c | 275.18$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed MH Beitar Jerusalem | 78c | 259$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed MH Beitar Jerusalem | 78c | 256$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…6929backed MH Beitar Jerusalem | 62c | 252.13$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked AEK Lárnakas | 39c | 202.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.56 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed AEK Lárnakas | 59c | 160.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed MH Beitar Jerusalem | 62c | 138.28$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeca…a1b7backed AEK Lárnakas | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed AEK Lárnakas | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 264 | 17.8%47 W · 217 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x743c…c386backed MH Beitar Jerusalem | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed MH Beitar Jerusalem | 51c | 93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked MH Beitar Jerusalem | 77c | 55.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked AEK Lárnakas | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 40cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed MH Beitar Jerusalem | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MH Beitar Jerusalem vs. AEK Lárnakas: Team to Advancethis page
- MH Beitar Jerusalem vs. AEK Lárnakas: MH Beitar Jerusalem O/U 1.5Over won
- MH Beitar Jerusalem vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 1.5Over won
- MH Beitar Jerusalem vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 2.5Over won
- MH Beitar Jerusalem vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 3.5Over won
- MH Beitar Jerusalem vs. AEK Lárnakas: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: AEK Lárnakas (-1.5)MH Beitar Jerusalem won
- Spread: MH Beitar Jerusalem (-1.5)AEK Lárnakas won
- Spread: MH Beitar Jerusalem (-2.5)AEK Lárnakas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.