MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb79214fdec687754adf0315ea8980f8df866f5a977c8ff05c5e1c9c61cac55e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 61c | 480.68$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.57 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 67c | 356.45$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.63 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 39c | 327.32$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.65 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 39c | 226.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 61c | 219$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 33c | 171.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Over | 33c | 170.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 27c | 129.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 72c | 107.14$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 41c | 89.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 51.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 39c | 40.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 56c | 39.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 68c | 16.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.