MLB · resolved market

San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4db02fbed9503e4d9e93b3752d828613bb503a12a2dee670276f2df7abd4520f

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $55,405
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $58,441

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,405 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Under	49c	23,054$11,297 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,757.19	650	50.3%327 W · 323 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6498…8910backed Over	52c	9,752$5,070 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,070.49	517	56.5%292 W · 225 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over	51c	7,338$3,719 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,718.51	1,029	51.2%527 W · 502 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over	52c	6,334$3,278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,277.81	1,660	50.1%832 W · 828 L	-22.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Under	48c	4,407$2,115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,291.39	74	41.9%31 W · 43 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	66c	3,676$2,423 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,253.32	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbf3…aa3abacked Under	54c	3,607$1,945 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,662.15	102	46.1%47 W · 55 L	-8.3wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Over	52c	3,467$1,803 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,802.91	83	53%44 W · 39 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	34c	3,367$1,153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,152.93	6,116	55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L	+344.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	49c	2,653$1,290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,362.82	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Under	52c	2,461$1,280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,181.32	2,369	47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	49c	2,316$1,130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,185.98	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Over	51c	1,426$724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$724.07	1,345	47.7%642 W · 703 L	+10.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over	50c	1,085$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542.72	1,106	48.7%539 W · 567 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29b0…3f3cbacked Over	48c	1,002$481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480.77	192	48.4%93 W · 99 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	43c	871.25$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.06	2,389	43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L	-25.4wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Under	50c	698.91$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$349.46	272	49.3%134 W · 138 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	48c	599.91$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.96	678	49.3%334 W · 344 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fce…63d5backed Over	50c	588.81$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.4	273	45.4%124 W · 149 L	-13.7wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x16af…b0c4backed Under	50c	582$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$291	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+89.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c70…b25ebacked Under	75c	525.48$394 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.49	133	61.7%82 W · 51 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bca…0d11backed Over	50c	434.17$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.09	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over	50c	361.81$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.91	1,269	51.1%648 W · 621 L	+23.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Over	50c	361.81$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.91	393	51.9%204 W · 189 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Over	50c	361.81$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.91	418	47.6%199 W · 219 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Over	50c	361.81$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.91	70	45.7%32 W · 38 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over	50c	361.81$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.91	1,043	49%511 W · 532 L	+3.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Over	50c	361.81$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.91	515	55.7%287 W · 228 L	+19.5wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Over	50c	361.81$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.91	344	52.6%181 W · 163 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Over	50c	361.81$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.91	126	56.3%71 W · 55 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Over	50c	361.81$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.91	133	43.6%58 W · 75 L	-7.5wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked Under	50c	339.5$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.75	198	42.9%85 W · 113 L	-10.1wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	47c	329.62$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.96	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Over	48c	324.79$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.9	410	51.7%212 W · 198 L	+14.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1489…9924backed Under	51c	291.18$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.68	185	53%98 W · 87 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Under	50c	227.01$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.5	48	64.6%31 W · 17 L	+7.3wins	+0.15per pick	49cpaid	+35.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Over	49c	208.64$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.77	443	48.5%215 W · 228 L	-7.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Over	50c	194$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	946	48.9%463 W · 483 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Over	50c	194$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	183	45.4%83 W · 100 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-16%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea8d…89b1backed Over	50c	194$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	122	50.8%62 W · 60 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over	25c	187.37$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.67	5,234	56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L	+130.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x852f…3aaebacked Over	24c	165$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.6	73	41.1%30 W · 43 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f2e…caf6backed Under	51c	137.77$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.51	53	50.9%27 W · 26 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Under	50c	137.62$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$68.81	185	53.5%99 W · 86 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under	50c	123.89$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.84	307	50.2%154 W · 153 L	-7.5wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a15…52d6backed Under	51c	114.8$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.25	63	55.6%35 W · 28 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Over	50c	97$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.5	524	49%257 W · 267 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6687…b9ddbacked Over	50c	97$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.5	87	52.9%46 W · 41 L	+3.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Over	48c	96.88$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.5	403	41.4%167 W · 236 L	-20.0wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Under	48c	84.33$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.76	655	49.3%323 W · 332 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3565…0b17backed Under	50c	77.6$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.8	224	50.4%113 W · 111 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd80…5ef4backed Over	50c	77.6$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.8	127	50.4%64 W · 63 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Under	60c	75$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	1,367	54.3%742 W · 625 L	+16.5wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	48c	72.9$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.56	1,355	49.8%675 W · 680 L	+7.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Over	17c	70.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.89	677	42.2%286 W · 391 L	-36.7wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-18%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x02f4…4effbacked Under	58c	64.9$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.45	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	51cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3c2…5509backed Under	52c	63.28$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.37	221	54.3%120 W · 101 L	+9.5wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Under	65c	60$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	1,927	17.2%331 W · 1,596 L	-320.3wins	-0.17per pick	34cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	32-0.16 edge/pick
0x7663…c9aabacked Over	51c	57.09$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.12	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under	51c	56.81$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.84	795	43%342 W · 453 L	-3.3wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Under	61c	53.37$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.97	254	52%132 W · 122 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe363…c894backed Under	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+3.3wins	+0.17per pick	46cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Under	49c	49.99$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.5	1,753	50.8%890 W · 863 L	+29.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Over	49c	49.94$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.47	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Over	50c	48.5$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.25	377	47.2%178 W · 199 L	-10.8wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x396a…f2ffbacked Under	50c	48.5$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.25	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over	36c	44.66$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.02	132	56.1%74 W · 58 L	+8.3wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc978…706bbacked Over	50c	43.11$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.55	310	46.5%144 W · 166 L	+2.9wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe5…7936backed Over	50c	38.8$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	192	48.4%93 W · 99 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Under	51c	38.06$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.65	704	55%387 W · 317 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over	41c	37.17$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.24	1,057	50.2%531 W · 526 L	+23.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2f…1b25backed Over	50c	29.4$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	41	36.6%15 W · 26 L	-6.3wins	-0.15per pick	52cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf5aa…4464backed Under	49c	28.79$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.68	288	50.3%145 W · 143 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under	53c	28.37$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.4	273	54.6%149 W · 124 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Over	47c	23.7$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.08	1,630	55.2%899 W · 731 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c86…456bbacked Over	51c	22.84$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.65	118	54.2%64 W · 54 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f31…e2b6backed Under	50c	22$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe851…9471backed Under	49c	21.69$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.02	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	60c	17$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.8	2,545	45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L	-73.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event