MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x279a3cf3ee8f179c971ff6e961c9796132300bddd21eeddcaa1368e617ebdf1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 979.83$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.63 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 520.23$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.61 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 496.89$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.04 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked San Francisco Giants | 63c | 410.32$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.5 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Francisco Giants | 49c | 388.37$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.51 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked San Francisco Giants | 47c | 197.44$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.79 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 192.44$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.24 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 178.52$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.04 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 170.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.78 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 161.98$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.9 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Baltimore Orioles | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 153.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked San Francisco Giants | 65c | 150.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77d4…3983backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 131.25$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked San Francisco Giants | 40c | 120.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed San Francisco Giants | 46c | 119.05$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 100.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed San Francisco Giants | 43c | 87.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 87.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed San Francisco Giants | 41c | 69.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7690…dfcebacked San Francisco Giants | 65c | 60.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 56.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 37c | 49.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Francisco Giants | 50c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed San Francisco Giants | 40c | 38.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Baltimore Orioles | 35c | 38.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8e…01f5backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 30.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked San Francisco Giants | 40c | 29.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd05…61d6backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 24.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 21.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 280 | 53.9%151 W · 129 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked San Francisco Giants | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.