CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: magic vs BIG (BO3) - HLC Belgrade Pro Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb798c78edf6fc2283376e5bef4e594ddb1a848aae2d5573863089cc1cd9d849d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BIGof magic, BIG
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5674…8b14backed magic | 30c | 1,819$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.25 | 367 | 42.8%157 W · 210 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked BIG | 77c | 733.18$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.44 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked BIG | 77c | 494$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.62 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…6bdcbacked magic | 23c | 476.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…3234backed magic | 29c | 457.32$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.6 | 313 | 45%141 W · 172 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed BIG | 78c | 360$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed magic | 52c | 347.3$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.68 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff09…80b5backed magic | 23c | 345.57$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x537d…615bbacked BIG | 60c | 331.84$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.74 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed magic | 21c | 323.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 139 | 37.4%52 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…471fbacked BIG | 55c | 204.15$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.35 | 357 | 52.9%189 W · 168 L | +22.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed BIG | 48c | 202.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.19 | 524 | 56.3%295 W · 229 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed magic | 45c | 189.85$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.43 | 676 | 51.8%350 W · 326 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ec…7307backed BIG | 79c | 179.32$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 132 | 67.4%89 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x384d…d538backed BIG | 55c | 155.41$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed BIG | 60c | 147.82$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.66 | 517 | 55.9%289 W · 228 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed magic | 22c | 143.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 697 | 32%223 W · 474 L | -46.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BIG | 48c | 135.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ca…540cbacked magic | 21c | 126.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed BIG | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,216 | 40.1%488 W · 728 L | -65.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked BIG | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4048…d4adbacked magic | 32c | 94.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -8.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6722…865fbacked magic | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ff…6431backed BIG | 80c | 81.02$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 231 | 65.8%152 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked BIG | 60c | 58.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 1,043 | 57.3%598 W · 445 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked BIG | 70c | 47.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 1,315 | 51.1%672 W · 643 L | -99.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed BIG | 50c | 33.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…1c86backed BIG | 56c | 26.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked BIG | 79c | 25.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 388 | 58.2%226 W · 162 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…df3ebacked BIG | 74c | 24.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: magic vs BIG (BO3) - HLC Belgrade Pro Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: magic vs BIG - Map 1 WinnerBIG won
- Counter-Strike: magic vs BIG - Map 2 WinnerBIG won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.