World Politics · resolved market
Will another Louvre heist robber be arrested by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7b76ccfa7949d2ebb3fbcbc57e134084f6bc6334f5ea81675d05d64b8e0c28f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 3c | 11,728$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.59 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba70…bb13backed No | 0c | 11,580$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +333.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,447$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 51c | 2,660$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +335.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…a60abacked No | 1c | 1,752$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6775…c73bbacked Yes | 11c | 515.27$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +368.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Yes | 11c | 499.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 179 | 21.2%38 W · 141 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 135.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.54 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd7…8dc7backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x538f…b40ebacked No | 80c | 51.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad23…47c4backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7265…e943backed No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another Louvre heist robber be arrested by October 31?this page
- Will another Louvre heist robber be arrested by December 31?Yes won
- Will another Louvre heist robber be arrested by November 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.