World Politics · resolved market
Will another Louvre heist robber be arrested by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ed11662343c7a5893ed00f75016d916e7e0064487c58ce0dea9fbb89d5af8be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe97c…cc99backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…635abacked No | 1c | 5,368$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 4,540$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 76c | 979.92$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +335.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8275…37bdbacked Yes | 36c | 888$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a24…1219backed No | 3c | 620$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked No | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 64c | 479.37$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.61 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…5adabacked No | 9c | 400.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee04…e683backed No | 64c | 262$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf493…f4f6backed No | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…5d75backed No | 64c | 230$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0953…ca4ebacked No | 64c | 209$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad05…735fbacked No | 64c | 187$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b90…1d17backed Yes | 57c | 175.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.17 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 36c | 173.7$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.77 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 10c | 156$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 48c | 115.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 108.2$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…6149backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…4d48backed No | 36c | 96.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 42c | 96.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed No | 39c | 85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 22c | 61.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 63c | 53.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1091…a259backed No | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78aa…7bf1backed Yes | 71c | 24.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…4877backed No | 51c | 21.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe915…4a53backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…8b15backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d5…69b8backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another Louvre heist robber be arrested by November 30?this page
- Will another Louvre heist robber be arrested by December 31?Yes won
- Will another Louvre heist robber be arrested by October 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.