Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2025-12-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7c227be4c35c10f6ba0fa8ab491e05da82674850d46a734457a020b897e467d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $138,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 38c | 120,000$45,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,103.98 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Yes | 61c | 66,515$40,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,721.42 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 71c | 23,588$16,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,743.99 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 60c | 15,980$9,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,664.84 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Yes | 45c | 7,018$3,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,158.11 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 45c | 4,000$1,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794.42 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 60c | 2,328$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.5 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 45c | 1,250$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.5 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 55c | 1,087$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.22 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f99cbacked Yes | 47c | 999.7$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf7…0f82backed Yes | 32c | 727.6$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 35c | 668.78$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.47 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 46c | 660$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.6 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Yes | 73c | 546.92$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 60c | 513.73$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.14 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 54c | 460.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.18 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Yes | 42c | 405.83$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.45 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 44c | 355.59$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.84 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Yes | 45c | 333.95$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.28 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 63c | 328.32$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.56 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…95d4backed Yes | 47c | 269.94$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 36c | 255.16$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.48 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 72c | 240$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…e123backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 58c | 199$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.58 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 45c | 183.53$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 56c | 150.74$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked No | 41c | 143.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.06 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 41c | 114.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 45c | 109.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Yes | 46c | 104$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 43c | 101$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Yes | 45c | 95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Yes | 45c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Yes | 44c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed No | 55c | 63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 42c | 61.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 71c | 53.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 35c | 51.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked No | 55c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd6…d4dfbacked No | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb72…b4edbacked Yes | 47c | 44.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed No | 55c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870f…08ebbacked No | 55c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked No | 55c | 38.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed No | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Yes | 45c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Yes | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed No | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…0868backed Yes | 59c | 19.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2025-12-13?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2025-12-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.