Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Holstein Kiel win on 2025-12-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1fef972696b71bb704a2d4f9cae54753e640013d9c9ac1b17046bf6cf1fd9cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 29c | 3,634$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.86 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 4c | 635$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Yes | 9c | 560.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed No | 4c | 503.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.07 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 72c | 459.02$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.93 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 78c | 280.55$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.82 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 29c | 280$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 29c | 262.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.21 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 30c | 222.11$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 12c | 201$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac74…f0eebacked Yes | 10c | 201$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd202…964dbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +5.3wins | +0.66per pick | 9cpaid | +798.5%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 29c | 188$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fe…7365backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 29c | 126$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 21c | 122.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e9…5e83backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 72c | 102.59$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 30c | 83.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Yes | 29c | 67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…97a7backed Yes | 30c | 61.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 30c | 49.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Yes | 28c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked No | 71c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked No | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked No | 75c | 42.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 29c | 41.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Yes | 29c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 29c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…f083backed No | 70c | 33.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed No | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2025-12-13?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?Yes won
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2025-12-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.