Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4a6b5b13ba8e942fa3c097eaa0a7443330ed254dd419ca4ebdc5d084f1b5363
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Yes | 29c | 891.65$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.35 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed No | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 19c | 425.7$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.82 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 28c | 291$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 26c | 220.68$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.3 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 28c | 216.85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.85 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 26c | 197.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.95 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Yes | 27c | 152$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 148.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 60c | 142.96$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 35c | 136.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 26c | 112.69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Yes | 28c | 96.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.78 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 33c | 93.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.81 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 71c | 92.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 55c | 81.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 26c | 77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 60c | 76.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 21c | 62.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 26c | 62.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6af1…0b91backed No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 78c | 56.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.94 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Yes | 26c | 54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc11e…75c8backed Yes | 26c | 46.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0853backed No | 74c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063c…d642backed No | 74c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…f2d4backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Holstein Kiel end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2025-12-13?No won
- Will Holstein Kiel win on 2025-12-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.