Mls · resolved market
Charlotte FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7c370e2fcffd9282265332998c0b8308b879374a5e3f50ff78c43fd7313e8bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,133 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 50c | 788$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked Under | 50c | 666$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 35c | 547.67$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.56 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 65c | 428.88$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.86 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…178dbacked Over | 49c | 424.24$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.36 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +6.0wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 51c | 313.73$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 35c | 282.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.53 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 49c | 269.02$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.82 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 58c | 245$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 66c | 227$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.63 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Over | 51c | 222.16$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 29c | 220.18$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 50c | 192$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Over | 80c | 134.83$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 63c | 130.3$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 19c | 117.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…c413backed Under | 48c | 105.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 44c | 75.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 37c | 57.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 69c | 52.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…7560backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -6.6wins | -0.15per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…8243backed Under | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Charlotte FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Charlotte FC vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Charlotte FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Charlotte FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Charlotte FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.