Mls · resolved market
Charlotte FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93029ece5d788cdb8537da76fcb33e8411e3957b4e1d4a5f3875afcbda34270e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,805 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 35c | 8,570$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,570.36 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 5,852$3,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,809.72 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 65c | 2,366$1,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,538.44 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 64c | 634.12$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.41 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 36c | 555.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.67 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 51c | 357.03$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.53 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 67c | 267.47$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.2 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 52c | 257.4$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.33 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 54c | 247$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.38 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 35c | 242.09$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.48 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 45c | 225.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.77 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 65c | 175.13$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.56 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 71c | 175$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.75 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Over | 28c | 174$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.28 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Over | 41c | 144.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.9 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 71c | 125$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 65c | 106.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 71c | 94.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed Over | 31c | 80.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 31c | 79.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 64c | 78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…eb06backed Over | 32c | 73.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 29c | 69.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.16 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 58c | 66.41$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 31c | 64.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Under | 65c | 53.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 71c | 41.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…b8d3backed Under | 65c | 41.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 71c | 40.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 58c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 65c | 37.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 36c | 37.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 29c | 34.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77e1backed Under | 74c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 71c | 31.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 65c | 29.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0d…b02fbacked Under | 67c | 23.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf484…bf13backed Under | 73c | 21.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 65c | 17.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Under | 75c | 16.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…80bbbacked Under | 75c | 16.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 73c | 13.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Charlotte FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Charlotte FC vs. Austin FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Charlotte FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Charlotte FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Charlotte FC vs. Austin FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.