Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will SBV Excelsior win on 2025-12-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7db1632a88deffb38721f7205236fa2cd36e8b2fbb20c3fc363db1906f07cd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 27c | 3,050$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.5 | 126 | 13.5%17 W · 109 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 1,819$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.6 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 1,601$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.41 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 75c | 1,377$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.28 | 293 | 57.3%168 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 13c | 800$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Yes | 2c | 736.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 71c | 676.22$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.42 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 29c | 613.78$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…6598backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 16c | 373.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Yes | 27c | 259.26$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 73c | 256.26$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 24c | 111$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 91 | 20.9%19 W · 72 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 91.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Yes | 27c | 88.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 26c | 81.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 192 | 41.7%80 W · 112 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…4d1cbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 31c | 38.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 495 | 28.7%142 W · 353 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…5480backed No | 73c | 37.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 396 | 37.1%147 W · 249 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Yes | 29c | 35.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 73c | 34.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 70c | 33.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SBV Excelsior win on 2025-12-05?this page
- Will FC Groningen win on 2025-12-05?Yes won
- Will SBV Excelsior vs. FC Groningen end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.