Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Groningen win on 2025-12-05?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbafffd95a8e722c3825173a99cf772e522a7c4755fb8bff68031ae856e2818eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 46c | 45,000$20,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,300 | 362 | 43.1%156 W · 206 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…8404backed No | 54c | 43,843$23,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,675.13 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 58c | 3,544$2,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.26 | 293 | 57.3%168 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…afefbacked Yes | 40c | 2,522$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,522.32 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 47c | 2,030$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.83 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 56c | 1,514$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.67 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…3070backed Yes | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 46c | 953.04$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.93 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 45c | 841.88$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.73 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 46c | 652.17$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.17 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked No | 54c | 559.96$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.38 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed No | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Yes | 47c | 478.72$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.72 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 43c | 439$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed No | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 42c | 392.81$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.18 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 45c | 346.01$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.5 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 52c | 318.99$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.97 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 45c | 262.5$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.38 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed No | 60c | 212.49$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.49 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 8c | 186.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 44c | 170.45$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.45 | 328 | 35.4%116 W · 212 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 55c | 153$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 171 | 41.5%71 W · 100 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 37c | 148.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 152 | 26.3%40 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed No | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e2…7b4ebacked Yes | 50c | 101.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +311.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes | 79c | 85.36$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda70…828bbacked Yes | 46c | 79.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +7.7wins | +0.25per pick | 36cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Yes | 44c | 65.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 46c | 60.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 192 | 41.7%80 W · 112 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 46c | 56.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 56c | 56.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa038…341dbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 54c | 47.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…498dbacked Yes | 48c | 46.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…8682backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +79%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceda…e67bbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…5480backed Yes | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf09d…115fbacked Yes | 45c | 32.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked Yes | 44c | 32.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd2…350cbacked No | 54c | 31.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd779…80dabacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 396 | 37.1%147 W · 249 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 76c | 26.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed No | 55c | 25.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 297 | 42.8%127 W · 170 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 144 | 35.4%51 W · 93 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 47c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…9a6ebacked Yes | 79c | 19.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 495 | 28.7%142 W · 353 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Groningen win on 2025-12-05?this page
- Will SBV Excelsior vs. FC Groningen end in a draw?No won
- Will SBV Excelsior win on 2025-12-05?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.