Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7effdd2f4792e207edfb5e5828b4fb743aa92e61e870fe825253aed0abb6119
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1978…dc07backed Yes | 72c | 605.72$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.57 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b85abacked No | 10c | 471.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 407.07$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 20c | 269.15$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.32 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 62c | 259.14$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.95 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 56c | 244.06$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 30c | 211.34$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.99 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 165.29$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 78c | 143.85$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 131.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ed…372fbacked No | 80c | 122.5$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…76a5backed Yes | 62c | 118.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3274…4493backed Yes | 34c | 109.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.37 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 57c | 104.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 73c | 99.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 33c | 99.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 86.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…d655backed No | 72c | 84.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 41c | 84.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 24c | 83.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 79.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 28c | 79.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.25 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 35c | 79.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked No | 78c | 76.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.69 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked No | 17c | 73.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 35c | 64.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34bb…7f70backed Yes | 47c | 60.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a35…3a72backed No | 79c | 60.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 59.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 72c | 56.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 78c | 54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…a752backed Yes | 37c | 50.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…951fbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed No | 59c | 49.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 70c | 49.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…5ffcbacked Yes | 48c | 47.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 39c | 46.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 76c | 44.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 53c | 44.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked No | 75c | 43.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed No | 62c | 42.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 64c | 42.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 58c | 41.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 40.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 43c | 40.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 46c | 39.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 43c | 36.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 67c | 32.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 43c | 28.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 63c | 27.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 66c | 26.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 24.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 80c | 22.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed No | 47c | 22.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 80c | 20.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 56c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 60c | 19.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 61c | 17.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 72c | 14.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be8…14cbbacked Yes | 79c | 14.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 77c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe61…e9c2backed No | 79c | 14.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 73 | 84.9%62 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.