Fifa International · resolved market
Will Norway beat Austria?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb80b965db69e354967965b725466e20940d033d7370cf73d1115684843c99f97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f89…3e08backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 73c | 6,733$4,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,817.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 77c | 6,026$4,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.97 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 74c | 1,500$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.99 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…47a0backed Yes | 27c | 1,282$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc497…767abacked Yes | 10c | 1,165$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…b9cfbacked Yes | 17c | 700$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…ba70backed Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.8 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…0284backed No | 74c | 353.7$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 29c | 349.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e04…991cbacked Yes | 27c | 333.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92dd…d924backed Yes | 26c | 222$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a7…6571backed No | 75c | 206.55$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3330…29debacked No | 74c | 129$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6219backed No | 74c | 118.52$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b3…940ebacked Yes | 27c | 117.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…c645backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x195f…086bbacked No | 75c | 93.33$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd446…a194backed No | 74c | 93$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…e9dfbacked Yes | 26c | 87.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f42…f8dcbacked Yes | 28c | 83.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc88f…987abacked No | 76c | 82.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…807cbacked No | 76c | 81.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…1d3cbacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66db…7afbbacked Yes | 27c | 54.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…d146backed Yes | 26c | 53.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 73c | 49.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339d…55c5backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 72c | 25.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee2…07c3backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Norway beat Austria?this page
- Will Austria beat Norway?Yes won
- Will the match between Austria and Norway end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.