Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb81ad8c318c94402678c379817f48bff40c96580f9d3ed14cecbd890df58a059
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 70c | 290.31$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 634 | 60.3%382 W · 252 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 260.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 76c | 194.26$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 697 | 58.4%407 W · 290 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 19c | 181.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 265 | 42.6%113 W · 152 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 176$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 34c | 147.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 36c | 117.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 28c | 103.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 557 | 42.5%237 W · 320 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 77c | 101.04$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 75c | 96.58$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 54c | 93.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 80.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd7…b347backed No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…fd39backed No | 66c | 75.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 71c | 68.18$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 67.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 61.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3d…d3e9backed No | 69c | 57.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 79 | 68.4%54 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 55.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 37c | 53.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 56c | 52.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 5,836 | 60%3,502 W · 2,334 L | -112.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 50.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 41c | 50.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…ed5bbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 39c | 49.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 53c | 44.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4101…d968backed Yes | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 61c | 41.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 110 | 59.1%65 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 41c | 40.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 79c | 37.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 1,451 | 52.3%759 W · 692 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 31c | 35.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 235 | 59.6%140 W · 95 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 235 | 54%127 W · 108 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,276 | 47.6%607 W · 669 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed No | 56c | 27.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,048 | 68.7%720 W · 328 L | -33.6wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 19.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 5,489 | 56%3,075 W · 2,414 L | -123.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 15.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.